Release date: 2016-07-20
Let us know in 2015 that some unicorn companies need to live longer in the “ranch†to gain magical power. People still like to record the number of steps, and hepatitis C can be effectively treated like the flu. Based on these observations, we made predictions for 2016. Below are our top 10 forecasts for the healthcare industry next year.
The US Federal Trade Commission will prevent large hospital mergers. The reason is simple: there is clear data that the likelihood of a merger bringing a price increase will outweigh the quality gain.
"Wearable device" becomes "medical wearable device." A new class of wearable devices will be available in 2016 to replace expensive medical therapies. They will provide highly effective minimally invasive therapies, using business models based on medical value creation (rather than health, entertainment and education).
Hospice care is of concern, and the use of responsible medical organizations and independent practitioners for hospice hospitals will double. In response to increasingly expensive medications, high deductible insurance, and new payment models, doctors invite patients to participate in end-of-life discussions and make decisions together. In the future, this shift will put pressure on drug pricing, with higher Net Promoter Scores from patients and higher doctors' income.
After experiencing serious losses and avoiding a risk-based reimbursement model, large hospital systems will cancel the appointment of doctors. The result will be that the hospital will begin to divest the loss-making clinics acquired in the past five years, which is very similar to the situation when doctors' clinic management companies went bankrupt in the 1990s.
The insurance innovation boom of 2015 will be in a downturn in 2016. Medical insurance and startups initiated by a number of well-known providers will find it difficult to provide competitive premiums, so they will not attract too many members and will lose a lot of cash. While the compelling software experience is dazzling, the “physical laws†of health insurance favor a large insurance program that leverages strong market power, gets higher provider discounts, and leverages its project manager army. Manage patients at high cost more effectively.
Precision medicine cooling, similar to the 1999 Human Genome Project, and will grow dramatically in a decade. Media attention has not translated into too much direct impact, because biology is too complex, and the reliability of care is not enough to benefit from the “fine tuning†of precision medicine. Today, a higher return on investment comes from the general statin prescription, ensuring patient compliance, achieving the goal of a general low-density lipoprotein target value of <100, instead of spending $3,000 on gene sequencing, reconfirming this “evidence guide†The "general approach" is not bad. <>
The concept of public health has begun to spread. Some well-known analytics companies will disappear or be transformed into health care providers because their current customers are not able to get enough value from their demographic health analysis tools. In fact, the value of such tools is currently mostly due to false reporting of medical expenses and the use of risk-related tricks – in contrast to prevention and treatment of complications, these tools are only for higher-return adjustment systems. In addition, most vendors already know which patients are at higher risk, so such tools become dispensable.
On-demand visits to services are in a downturn. High customer acquisition costs and the inability of most people to pay high fees have determined that the on-demand visits and prescription drug delivery markets are very small. In contrast, video telemedicine will provide another way for patients to get medical treatment quickly and at a fraction of the cost. However, at least in 2016, we have to continue to queue up for prescription drugs at retail pharmacies.
The proprotein convertase, subtilisin 9 (PCSK9), makes the prescription drug Solvaldi look cheaper. Real mortality data makes doctors want to keep cholesterol to a minimum, and only PCSK9 can achieve this effect. In addition, patients believe that weekly injections are more convenient than taking tablets daily. A weekly injection guarantees that the patient is in compliance with the doctor's advice, which will lead to more innovations in the drug delivery strategy and reduce the risk of patients forgetting to take the drug.
Employers are beginning to value health care costs and treat them as much as travel expenses. Employers will impose preferred travel partners and daily travel expenses subsidies, and they will also be more proactive in developing policies to manage health care costs. Large companies can choose doctors and hospitals where employees seek medical treatment, require employees to provide a second treatment opinion before receiving a high-cost medical program or treatment, recommend telemedicine before employees go to the emergency room, or require online tools to manage their physical condition and Actual expenditure.
We are not prophets. Whether these predictions can be achieved in 2016, and let us wait and see.
About the author: Bob Coschel and Brian Roberts are partners in venture capital firm Venrock, which is looking for investment opportunities in the medical field.
Source: Fortune Chinese Network
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